伊朗战事曝露波斯湾产油国家的一项致命弱点:当地虽然能源丰富,淡水资源却极度匮乏,数千万人口的日常用水高度仰赖海水淡化。然而,过去数月已有多座设施接连遇袭。如果冲突持续升高,海水淡化厂或输水管线遭到重创,恐使动荡局势进一步恶化,引发更严重的人道与经济危机。以下是四大重点整理:
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1、波湾地区极度依赖淡化水
波湾是全球最缺水的地区之一,各国仰赖海水淡化供应民生及产业用水,才能在沙漠中发展商业与观光。阿布达比、杜哈等快速扩张的城市,依赖程度尤其高。
全球约一半海水淡化产能集中在波湾六国,当地约6,000万人口中,许多人仰赖淡化水。淡化水占科威特淡水用量的90%、阿曼86%、沙乌地阿拉伯70%,阿联也达42%。
2、淡化设施脆弱易受创
开战初期已有数座淡化厂受损。7月停火破裂后,科威特多座电力与海水淡化设施接连遇袭,部分发电机组受损。巴林也通报淡化厂遭伊朗无人机击中;伊朗则指控美国攻击格什姆岛淡化厂,导致30个村庄停水。
淡化海水需要大量电力,因此设施常与发电厂相邻。即使攻击只锁定发电设备,也可能同时瘫痪供电与海水淡化系统,引发水电双重危机。
3、淡化厂重建旷日废时
海水淡化厂使用复杂且昂贵的技术,遭摧毁后可能需要数年重建,严重受损也需数周至数月修复。输水管线同样可能遇袭,但通常较快修复。
波湾国家虽建立战略储水,多半只能维持数天。阿联目标是在极端紧急情况下储备45天以上用水。短期可采取限水、配给及发放瓶装水等措施;若水源耗尽,当局可能必须疏散居民。
4、国际法有明令但战火下难保
《日内瓦公约》附加议定书明文禁止攻击饮用水设施,因为这类设施攸关平民生存。然而,伊朗、巴林与科威特的淡化设施仍先后遭到攻击或波及,显示国际规范在现实冲突中难以彻底约束交战行为,民生基础设施依旧暴露于战火威胁之下。